AntipodeFoundation.org

A Radical Geography Community

Intervention – “Venezuela: It’s all about the oil”

Sean Field, University of Toronto Mississauga, sean.field@utoronto.ca

Venezuela is in crisis (Buxton 2016; Hetland 2016; Human Rights Watch 2018a; Petras 2013). US sanctions and recent calls for a military coup (Cárdenas 2018; Gaouette 2018; USDS 2018a; Wroughton and Alexander 2018) in Venezuela, however, are motivated by geopolitics and oil, not concern for human rights. US sanctions on Venezuela have undercut the country’s oil production (Butler 2018; EIA 2018a; Jacobs 2018; OECD 2018; YCharts 2018a) and starved the country of consumer goods such as food and medicine, creating a humanitarian crisis (Hetland 2016; Rodríguez 2018). Venezuela is a major player on the oil market with the largest proven oil reserves in the world. 95 percent of the country’s export revenue comes from the state-owned oil company (Buxton 2016; OPEC 2018a, 2018b, 2018c). US oil producers have been happy to fill some of the supply gap, seizing on higher global prices and expanding output (EIA 2018b; YCharts 2018b). Viewed in the historical context of US interventionism in Venezuela, Latin America, and oil rich countries (Borger and Bellos 2002; Fuchs and Brown 2017; Paul 2002; Petras 2013; Walker 2011), and in the historical context of American human rights violations domestically and abroad (Human Rights Watch 2018b; Murphy 2004; Robinson 2017; Russo 2016; UN 2018a), US-led calls for interventions in Venezuela on the basis of human rights (Cárdenas 2018; Gaouette 2018; OAS 2018), should be regarded as suspicious and hypocritical. Economic data and history show that what is really driving US-led pressure on Venezuela is the US government’s desire for US-aligned regime change in Venezuela and US control over global oil resources.

A new report by the Organization of American States (OAS), a Washington DC based organization whose members include the United States, argues that government mismanagement, socialism, and brutal government oppression is to blame for the economic and social crisis in Venezuela (OAS 2018). Following the report’s release US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, called on the OAS to expel Venezuela and for stricter sanctions to be imposed on the country (Gaouette 2018). José Cárdenas, acting assistant administrator for Latin America at the U.S. Agency for International Development in the George W. Bush administration, has gone so far as to publically call for a US backed military coup in Venezuela (Cárdenas 2018):

…we should recognize that dialogue or diplomacy cannot bring a resolution to the Venezuela crisis…the only institution capable of instigating a real political transition in Venezuela is the Venezuelan military.

In recent days, it has been reported that US President Donald Trump has internally pushed for a US military invasion of Venezuela since mid-2017 (Goodman 2018).

Human rights abuses in Venezuela are deeply troubling and are being examined by the International Criminal Court (ICC 2018). The real motivation behind the OAS report and US-pressure are suspicious, however, because the US government has actively promoted regime change in Venezuela since the election of the socialist Chavez government in 1998 (Martin 2017; Petras 2013; Sharma et al. 2004). The US government also has a well-documented history of undermining socialist governments in Latin America (ex. Chile, Cuba) (Clement 2005; Dunne 2011; Walker 2011). The motivation for the OAS report is suspicious because as they regularly ignore economic and social conditions in other OAS countries (Human Rights Watch 2018b; UN 2018b).

The UN’s Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights released a report in June 2018 on the OAS’s most powerful country, the US. The Rapporteur found that “40 million live poverty, 18.5 million in extreme poverty, and 5.3 million live in Third World conditions of absolute poverty” in the US (UN 2018b). Add to this that 4,645 people died in in Puerto Rico in the aftermath of Hurricane Maria last year (Kishore et al. 2018), there is a long history US police brutality against black and racialized communities (Human Rights Watch 2018b), the migrant family detention and child separation crisis (UN 2018a), and the current administration’s praise of extra judicial killings in places such as the Philippines (ICC 2018; Kishore et al. 2018).

The real reason for the crisis in Venezuela and US sanctions is oil. Venezuela is a major player on the oil market with the largest oil reserves in the world at 302 billion barrels in proven oil reserves, followed by Saudi Arabia that has 266 billion barrels in proven oil reserves (OECD 2018; OPEC 2018a). The US sanctions enacted under the Trump administration have not only starved Venezuela of consumer goods (Hetland 2016; Rodríguez 2018), but also industrial goods, under-cutting the country’s oil production (Rincon 2018). Venezuela needs inputs and credit to repair its oil infrastructure and diluent for producing oil. US sanctions are restricting the import of both (Rincon 2018). Venezuela is currently producing about 1.51 million barrels of oil per day, down from a high of 3.45 million barrels per day in 1997 and 2.16 million barrels per day just a year ago in June 2017 (OECD 2018; OPEC 2018a). Currently only about 28 of Venezuela’s more than 80 oilrigs are operating (YCharts 2018a). Venezuela’s economy depends on exporting oil and importing most consumer and industrial goods (Butler 2018; Hetland 2016). US oil producers and other OPEC members have been happy to fill the supply gap left by the fall in Venezuelan oil production (EIA 2018b; OPEC 2018c; YCharts 2018b).

(Source: http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htm)

Venezuelan oil production is a threat to US oil producers. If Venezuela were allowed to ramp up oil production and sell its oil on global markets it could flood the market with oil, which would lower global oil prices and halt the recent boom in US oil production (Butler 2018). It would also inject cash into the struggling Venezuelan economy and undermine US-led pressure for regime change. Currently, shipments of Venezuelan oil to countries in Asia are at historic lows, while shipments of the relatively cheap US oil to Asia have risen sharply (Cheong 2018; Reuters 2018).

Oil production in Venezuela has been unstable since the run up to the oil worker lock out in 2003 (Toledo 2012). The lockout by US aligned Venezuelan oil executives came on the heels of a failed US backed coup a few months earlier (Borger and Bellos 2002; Sharma et al. 2004; Toledo 2012). Oil production stabilized between 2003 and 2015, but has plummeted since 2015. New sanctions have made existing production issues worse (OECD 2018; YCharts 2018a; OPEC 2018b, 2018c; Rincon 2018; Toledo 2012). While Venezuela may have more oil reserves than Iran, unlike Venezuela, Iran has a major industrial manufacturing sector that supplies consumer and industrial goods. Venezuela is more import-dependent than Iran and less insulated from US economic sanctions (IMF 2011; Johnson 2012; Petras 2013; World Bank 2018).

In the short run, US sanctions on Venezuela benefit US oil producers by pushing global oil prices higher prices and by opening up demand that would have otherwise been filled by Venezuela and needed to absorb the surge in US oil production (Cheong 2018; EIA 2018b; YCharts 2018b). In the long run, US-led pressure on Venezuela will benefit US oil producers if regime change can usher in the neoliberalization of Venezuela’s oil production (Butler 2018), as it did in Iraq after the 2002 US-led invasion (Paul 2002, 2003; World Bank 2018).

Total Oil Production 1971-2018

(Data: https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm)

Venezuela Oil Rig Count, 1995-2018

(Data: https://ycharts.com/indicators/venezuela_oil_rotary_rigs)

US Oil Rig Count, 1995-2018

(Data: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs)

The US government can exert influence over the global oil economy by working with or against other oil producing regions. The US is geopolitically friendly but competitive with export oil production in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Canada and other countries for example (USDS 2014, 2017; Wang and Mirza 2017). The US is not friendly, by contrast, and in competition with, Iranian and Venezuelan oil state-owned oil producers (USDS 2018a, 2018b) – the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) and Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA). Undermining production and market access through economic sanctions, puts economic pressure on the governments of Iran and Venezuela to politically align with US foreign policy demands, and create market opportunities for US based firms (Butler 2018; Cheong 2018). Thus, while human rights abuses in Venezuela are concerning, the reason for US-sanctions on Venezuela and the recent OAS report is the geopolitics of oil.

US pressure on Venezuela is part of long history of US imperialism targeting global oil resources that critical geographers like Nayna Jhaveri (2004) and Matthew Huber (2013) have documented and discussed. Jhaveri calls predatory US foreign policy on global oil resources “petroimperialism” (Jhaveri 2004). Huber (2013) links imperialism to the 20th century construction of the “American Way of Life” that the Trump administration’s “Make American Great Again” platform nostalgically refers. Exerting control over oil resources in the Middle East has been a US national security priority since the Second World War and became official US policy in 1980 with the Carter Doctrine (Huber 2013; Jhaveri 2004). With proven oil reserves in Venezuela skyrocketing in the mid-2000s and surpassing Saudi Arabia 2011 (Faucon 2011; OPEC 2018d), all petroimperialist eyes are now on Venezuela.

References

Borger J and Bellos A (2002) US “gave the nod” to Venezuelan coup. The Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/world/2002/apr/17/usa.venezuela

Butler N (2018) It is Venezuela’s crisis that is driving the oil price higher. Financial Times https://www.ft.com/content/5815d0b8-2c7f-11e8-9b4b-bc4b9f08f381

Buxton J (2016) Venezuela after Chávez. New Left Review 99:5-25

Cárdenas J R (2018) It’s time for a coup in Venezuela. Foreign Policy http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/06/05/its-time-for-a-coup-in-venezuela-trump/

Cheong S (2018) Global oil prices go separate ways in sign of market discord. Bloomberg https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-31/global-oil-benchmarks-pulled-apart-in-sign-of-market-discordance

Clement C (2005) Confronting Hugo Chávez: United States “democracy promotion” in Latin America. Latin American Perspectives 32(3):60-78

Dunne M (2011) Perfect failure: The USA, Cuba, and the Bay of Pigs, 1961. Political Quarterly 82(3):448-458

EIA (2018a) “Venezuela’s crude oil production declines amid economic instability.” US Energy Information Administration https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=35312

EIA (2018b) “Weekly US Field Production of Crude Oil.” US Energy Information Administration https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=mcrfpus2&f=m

Faucon B (2011) Venezuela’s oil reserves top Saudi Arabia’s, OPEC says. The Wall Street Journal https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052702303795304576454251217542830

Fuchs G and Brown L (2017) Venezuela’s Caracazo: How neoliberal failure led to state repression. teleSUR https://www.telesurtv.net/english/analysis/Venezuelas-Caracazo-State-Repression-and-Neoliberal-Misrule-20150226-0028.html

Gaouette N (2018) Pompeo calls on OAS to oust Venezuela. CNN https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/04/politics/pompeo-oas-venezuela-expel/index.html

Goodman J (2018) Trump pressed aides on Venezuela invasion, US official says. The New York Times https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2018/07/04/world/americas/ap-lt-venezuela-us-military-intervention.html

Hetland G (2016) Why is Venezuela in crisis? The Nation https://www.thenation.com/article/why-is-venezuela-in-crisis/

Huber M T (2013) Lifeblood: Oil, Freedom, and the Forces of Capital. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press

Human Rights Watch (2018a) “Venezuela: Events of 2017.” https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/venezuela

Human Rights Watch (2018b) “United States: Events of 2017.” https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/united-states

ICC (2018) “Statement of the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, Mrs Fatou Bensouda, on opening Preliminary Examinations into the situations in the Philippines and in Venezuela.” International Criminal Court https://www.icc-cpi.int/Pages/item.aspx?name=180208-otp-stat

IMF (2011) “Public Information Notice: IMF Executive Board Concludes 2011 Article IV Consultation with the Islamic Republic of Iran.” International Monetary Fund http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/pn11107

Jacobs J (2018) Venezuela’s oil exports to the US fading fast. Petroleum Economist http://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/politics-economics/south-central-america/2018/venezuelas-oil-exports-to-the-us-fading-fast

Jhaveri N J (2004) Petroimperialism: Oil interests and the Iraq War. Antipode 36(1):2-11

Johnson T (2012) How sanctions affect Iran’s economy. Council on Foreign Relations https://www.cfr.org/interview/how-sanctions-affect-irans-economy

Kishore N, Marqués D, Mahmud A, Kiang M V, Rodriguez I, Fuller A, Ebner P, Sorensen C, Racy F, Lemery J, Maas L, Leaning J, Irizarry R A, Balsari S and Buckee C O (2018) Mortality in Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria. New England Journal of Medicine DOI:10.1056/NEJMsa1803972

Martin H (2017) Coup‐proofing and beyond: The regime‐survival strategies of Hugo Chávez. Latin American Policy 8(2):249-262

Murphy S D (2004) US abuse of Iraqi detainees at Abu Ghraib prison. American Journal of International Law 98(3):591-596

OAS (2018) “Report of the General Secretariat of the Organization of American States and the Panel of Independent International Experts on the Possible Commission of Crimes Against Humanity in Venezuela.” Organization of American States http://www.oas.org/en/media_center/press_release.asp?sCodigo=E-031/18

OECD (2018) “Crude Oil Production.” Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development https://data.oecd.org/energy/crude-oil-production.htm

OPEC (2018a) “OPEC share of world crude oil reserves.” Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/data_graphs/330.htm

OPEC (2018b) “Venezuela.” Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/171.htm

OPEC (2018c) “Monthly Oil Market Report – June.” Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries https://momr.opec.org/pdf-download/index.php

OPEC (2018d) “Monthly Oil Market Report.” Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries http://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm

Paul J A (2002) Iraq: The struggle for oil. Global Policy Forum https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/185/40471.html

Paul J A (2003) Oil companies in Iraq. Global Policy Forum https://www.globalpolicy.org/component/content/article/185/40586.html

Petras J (2013) US-Venezuela relations:  A case study of imperialism and anti-imperialism. Canadian Dimension https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/us-venezuela-relations-a-case-study-of-imperialism-and-anti-imperialism

Reuters (2018) India’s oil imports from Venezuela hit lowest in over 5 yrs. https://www.reuters.com/article/india-oil-venezuela/indias-oil-imports-from-venezuela-hit-lowest-in-over-5-yrs-idUSL3N1QU051

Rincon P (2018) How Venezuela has resorted to importing oil as its core industry faces collapse. The Independent https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/venezuela-oil-imports-economy-industry-heavy-refining-efficiency-a8307161.html

Robinson M A (2017) Black bodies on the ground: Policing disparities in the African American community–An analysis of newsprint from January 1, 2015, through December 31, 2015. Journal of Black Studies 48(6):551-571

Rodríguez F (2018) Why more sanctions won’t help Venezuela. Foreign Policy http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/12/why-more-sanctions-wont-help-venezuela

Russo C (2016) Witness Against Torture, Guantánamo, and solidarity as resistance. Race and Class 58(2):4-22

Sharma S, Tracy S and Kumar S (2004) Venezuela – Ripe for US intervention? Race and Class 45(4):61-74

Toledo Y H (2012) The 2002 oil lockout: 10 years later. Venezuela Analysis https://venezuelanalysis.com/analysis/7527

UN (2018a) “Children ‘as young as one’ involved in US separation of migrant families – UN rights office.” UN News https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/06/1011391

UN (2018b) “Report of the Special Rapporteur on extreme poverty and human rights on his mission to the United States of America.” United Nations General Assembly http://undocs.org/A/HRC/38/33/ADD.1

USDS (2014) “US Relations With Kuwait.” US Department of State https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35876.htm

USDS (2017) US Relations With Saudi Arabia.” US Department of State https://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/3584.htm

USDS (2018a) “Venezuela-Related Sanctions.” US Department of State https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/venezuela/

USDS (2018b) “Iran Sanctions.” US Department of State https://www.state.gov/e/eb/tfs/spi/iran/index.htm

Walker V (2011) At the end of influence: The Letelier assassination, human rights, and rethinking intervention in US-Latin American relations. Journal of Contemporary History 46(1):109-135

Wang H and Mirza A (2017) Kuwait embarks on an energy investment spree. Forbes https://www.forbesmiddleeast.com/en/kuwait-should-focus-on-improving-efficiency-to-rein-in-deficits/

World Bank (2018) “Islamic Republic of Iran.” http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/iran/overview

Wroughton L and Alexander D (2018) US bans transactions with Venezuela’s digital currency. Reuters https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-crypto-currencies-venezuela-usa/u-s-bans-transactions-with-venezuelas-digital-currency-idUSKBN1GV2AX

YCharts (2018a) “Venezuela Oil Rig Count.” https://ycharts.com/indicators/venezuela_oil_rotary_rigs; and http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsintl

YCharts (2018b) “US Oil Rig Count.” https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_oil_rotary_rigs; and http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsintl

What do you think? Here at AntipodeFoundation.org we value readers' responses and encourage comments

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

Archive by category

Interventions Interviews News Other Reviews Video Abstracts Virtual Issues

Archive by date

Journal content

Antipode - Wiley Online Library

Antipode Book Series

Antipode - Wiley Online Library

Twitter updates

Enter your e-mail address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts.

Join 15,109 other followers

Transparency notice

Click here to read about how we use and protect the personal data of Antipode’s authors and referees and those applying for Antipode Foundation grants and places at events we organise

%d bloggers like this: